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Hospital
You are working as a doctor in a clinic. Historic data shows that 11% of the patients entering the clinic have a liver disease. We also know that 23% of the total clinic’s patients are alcoholics. From the patients that are diagnosed with a liver disease, 15% are alcoholics.
If we pick someone who is an alcoholic, what is the probability they have a liver disease?
If we pick someone who is an alcoholic, what is the probability they have a liver disease?
Hint
Use the Bayes' Theorem.
Solution
Let's define
- A = Patient has liver disease
- B = Patient is an alcoholic
- P(A) = 0.11
- P(B) = 0.23
(1) 
(2) 
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