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A casino offers a game played with a fair eight-sided die (faces 1 through 8). You roll once and look at the result. You may either cash out and be paid the value showing, or you may discard it and roll a second time, in which case you must cash out at whatever the second roll shows.

Playing to maximise your expected payout, what is the fair value of this game?
Before solving, let's name the one idea behind this game: backward induction for an optimal stopping decision. When you face a "keep it or try again" choice, you compare what you already have against the expected value of the alternative, and you keep what you have only when it is at least as good.

What is a fresh roll worth?
If you discard the first roll, you are paid whatever the second roll shows, with no further choices. The second roll is a fair eight-sided die, so its expected value is the average of the faces: \begin{equation} E[\text{reroll}] = \frac{1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8}{8} = \frac{36}{8} = 4.5 \end{equation} So choosing to re-roll is worth $4.5$ on average, no matter what the first roll was.

The decision rule
After seeing the first roll $v$, you choose the better of two options: keep $v$, worth $v$, or re-roll, worth $4.5$. You therefore keep the first roll exactly when \begin{equation} v \geq 4.5 \end{equation} that is, when $v \in \{5, 6, 7, 8\}$, and you re-roll when $v \in \{1, 2, 3, 4\}$.

Computing the game's value
Each first-roll value $v$ occurs with probability $\frac{1}{8}$. For the four low values you re-roll and collect $4.5$; for the four high values you keep $v$. So the fair value is \begin{equation} E[\text{game}] = \frac{1}{8}\Big(\underbrace{4.5 + 4.5 + 4.5 + 4.5}_{v = 1,2,3,4 \text{, re-roll}} + \underbrace{5 + 6 + 7 + 8}_{v = 5,6,7,8 \text{, keep}}\Big) \end{equation} \begin{equation} E[\text{game}] = \frac{1}{8}\big(18 + 26\big) = \frac{44}{8} = 5.5 \end{equation} Notice the value 5.5 sits comfortably above the 4.5 you would get from a single roll with no choice: the option to re-roll the bad half of the die is worth exactly one extra point.

So, the fair value of this game is 5.5
Correct Answer: 5.5
Python scratchpad
# Run Python right here in your browser
def two_sum(nums, target):
    seen = {}
    for i, n in enumerate(nums):
        if target - n in seen:
            return [seen[target - n], i]
        seen[n] = i
    return []

print(two_sum([2, 7, 11, 15], 9))  # [0, 1]
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Title Category Subcategory Difficulty Status
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Biased Coin #2 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Biased Coin #3 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Biased Coin #5 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Capsule Colors Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Card On Top Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Coin Toss #2 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Coins and Dice Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Costly Reroll Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Croissant or Muffin Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Diamond Variance Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Dice Game #1 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueHard
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Dice Game #2 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueHard
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Dice Sum Game Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Dice vs Coins Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Dice With Same Numbers Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Different Outcome Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Divisible Throws Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Double Down Coin Bet Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Double Roll Pay Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Drunk Student #1 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Drunk Student #2 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Empty Boxes Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Exponential Distribution #1 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Faster Sixes Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueHard
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First Ace Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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First Flip Wins Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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First Prime Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Flip 4 Coins Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Flowers in Bloom Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Free Seat Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Free Ticket Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueHard
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Game Show Stop or Go Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Kelly Betting #1 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Largest Sunflower Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Other Than Six Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Patient Roller Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Remaining Coins Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Repeating Dice Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
Example
Roll and Spin Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Rowing Reshuffle Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Same Flips Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Shooting Star Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Shuttle Wait Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Specific Card #1 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Spin in Two Regions Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Sum Remaining Odd Dice Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Sum Two Dice Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Sum Until Success Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Three Blue Orbs Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Throw a 6 #1 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Throw a 6 #2 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Throw a 6 #3 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueHard
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Throw a 6 #4 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Throw Until Matched Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
Example
Toy Collection #1 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Toy Collection #2 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Tripling Die Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Two Consecutive Fives Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Two Dice Difference Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Two Hues Left Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueHard
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Two Rolls Payoff Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Two Same Dice Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Uniform Distribution #1 Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueHard
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Up Days Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Voucher Swap Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueEasy
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Warming Spells Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueMedium
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Widening Wheel Probability and StatisticsExpected ValueHard
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