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Market Making

Next Card Betting

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Market Making Next Card Betting
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Market Making Game ~5 min Guided tutorial
Focus mode hides the sidebar so you can concentrate on the test. Turn it off here — or with the panel icon at the top right — whenever you like.
Play Now Access includes a guided tutorial for your first game
Overview
Next Card Betting drills the two skills every bet size decision needs: exact probability and the Kelly criterion. You start with 1,000 chips and a deck of 1 to 4 suits, with the ace low or high. Each cycle deals a reference card and asks you to predict the next one: higher or lower first, then inside or outside the two cards on the table, and with multiple suits whether the next card shows a brand new suit. Every dealt card stays visible, so you can count exactly what is left in the deck, turn that into a precise probability, and stake the Kelly fraction of your balance. Payouts are even money, so even a small edge over 50 percent is worth betting when you size it right.
Example: sizing one bet
Cards are dealt face up onto the table one at a time, so you always know exactly which cards are gone. Each round asks a question about the next card, you pick a side, and the only real decision is how much of your balance to put behind it.
Example animation
Every bet pays even money, so the edge comes from betting more when the odds are with you.
This is a looping illustration of the game screen, not the live game. Play Now
Game Phases
1
Count the deck Every card dealt stays on the table, grouped by cycle. Subtract what you see from the original deck to know exactly which cards are still in play, then work out the true probability of each side. The fewer cards left, the sharper your math gets.
2
Pick a side Bet one: is the next card higher or lower than the reference card? Bet two: does it land inside or outside the two dealt cards? With 2 or more suits a third bet asks whether the next card shows a new suit, and a Same option covers exact ties. Skipping any bet costs nothing.
3
Size with the Kelly criterion At even money the Kelly fraction is 2P minus 1 of your balance, where P is your probability of winning. A 60 percent edge means betting 20 percent of your chips, 70 percent means 40 percent, and a certainty means everything. Drag the slider or use the quick percent buttons to match it.
4
Lock in and learn Submit to flip the next card. There is no timer in solo play, so take the time to count properly. Win and loss rings on the card table show how each bet resolved, and the game runs 4 cycles per suit before your final balance settles.
More Practice

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