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Market Making

The Marble Olympics

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Market Making The Marble Olympics
Browse Games
Market Making Game ~10 min Guided tutorial
Focus mode hides the sidebar so you can concentrate on the test. Turn it off here — or with the panel icon at the top right — whenever you like.
Play Now Access includes a guided tutorial for your first game
Overview
The Marble Olympics is a real-time trading simulation built around a marble football final. Two teams shoot marbles at an orange and a red goal over 90 game minutes, compressed into 10, 20 or 30 real minutes. Team strength is hidden: before kick-off you study the bracket, where both finalists played their earlier rounds with the same accuracies and shot counts, so past scores are your estimator of how good each team really is. Once the match starts you trade a main market that settles at Team A total times Team B total, snipe stale quotes after goals, and pick off mispriced one-shot side bets. Everything settles on the actual final counts.
Example: trading the final live
Two marble teams fire into an orange and a red goal for 90 minutes and the counts tick up in front of you. The main market settles at one team total times the other, and a set of side bets pays out multiples of counts and differences. Prices keep moving, so you trade in and out as the match unfolds.
Example animation
Totals are 6 and 7 with 26 minutes left, so the table is worth 42 if it ended now. The quote is near 83 because it prices the full-time product, and the spread is only a point wide.
This is a looping illustration of the game screen, not the live game. Play Now
Game Phases
1
Study the bracket Team strength is hidden, but each finalist played its earlier rounds with the same accuracies and shot counts as the final. Estimate each team's expected final total before kick-off, because every price you will see derives from it.
2
Trade the main market The main market settles at Team A total times Team B total. Buy at the ask or sell at the bid as often as you like, in size 1, 5 or 10. The spread is about one point and drifts over the match.
3
Snipe stale quotes after goals When a goal lands, fair value jumps instantly but the quote only catches up over about a couple of seconds. The first profitable trade in that window takes advantage of the remaining edge, and it snaps the market back to the new fair value.
4
Pick off the side bets Side bets on the final marble counts appear in batches, each live for exactly 60 seconds, and can be traded once each. The quotes are close to fair but never exact, and non-linear payouts hide extra value in their corresponding variance.
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